tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39396702012-01-31T03:17:52.738+01:00Analysis of Japan's Ongoing Economic Crisis and Its Aging Population ProblemEdward Hughnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4721100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-74179397453711695572012-01-25T17:38:00.009+01:002012-01-25T18:33:06.116+01:00

Japan's energy and industrial policy that has been in place since the oil crisis of the early 1970's has been overturned.Reuters reports today that Japan's first trade deficit since 1980 raises debt doubts:"Japan runs trade deficit of $32 bln in 2011Dec exports -8.0 pct yr/yr, imports +8.1 pct"A key is the problem of increased reliance on fuel imports due to the loss of nuclear power. Only four

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-41056397297183910532011-12-28T20:37:00.003+01:002011-12-28T20:49:23.310+01:00

The FT reports that "Japan relaxes weapons export ban", stating that "Tokyo has relaxed a decades-old ban on arms exports, opening the way for Japanese companies to participate in the international development and manufacture of advanced weapon systems."This is clearly a move to bolster the country's manufacturing sector and avoid current account deficits, as China's economy has slowed down.It

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-66061781186822295612011-10-28T07:26:00.000+02:002011-10-28T07:27:11.718+02:00

According to a BusinessWeek article from 2000 Japan, a Nation of Risk-Takers? (int’l edition)“Seniors aged 60 years and over own about 70% of Japan’s $11 trillion in household financial assets. Only 9% of that is directly invested in stocks and a mere 2% in mutual funds.” Eleven years later should mean that Japanese 71 and over hold 70% of $11 trillion or $7.7 trillion in household financial

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-54267143256794702162011-07-31T13:08:00.020+02:002011-07-31T19:54:58.221+02:00

"Japan’s V-shaped recovery has now become a statistical fact rather than our forecast. According to retail sales statistics, the level of retail sales in June has already exceeded the level prior to the disaster. Sales of general merchandise and apparel have recovered and replacement demand for vehicles and reconstruction demand for household equipment have lifted sales of these items to above

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-84265005457906170402011-07-06T09:20:00.001+02:002011-07-06T09:20:50.682+02:00

Alex Kerr, in the book Dogs and Demons, documents how Japan has “only the most primitive regulation of toxic waste” (p. 57), and for comparison describes how “There are more than a thousand controlled hazardous substances in the United States” where as in Japan “only a few dozen substances were subject to government controls” (p. 58). Further, “Japanese laws do not call for

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-43169944532536403632011-06-28T23:21:00.005+02:002011-06-28T23:42:07.268+02:00

In the book "Dogs and Demons: Tales from the Dark Side of Japan", Alex Kerr notes that Japan has very high inheritance taxes relative to other developed countries. This could be a significant factor in Japan's public and private economic future, as larger numbers of Japanese pass away leaving substantial savings from their estates.BusinessWeek identified the issue back in 1999 in an essay "

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-77382753088709064862011-05-20T00:36:00.005+02:002011-05-20T22:43:14.337+02:00

Japan's economy has fallen into recession again with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Gross domestic product contracted 0.9% during the January-March quarter, marking a 3.7% annualized drop, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday. A drop in domestic demand took 0.8 of a percentage point off growth last quarter. Business investment fell 0.9% and consumer spending declined 0.6%.

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-3051591642461705682011-05-03T14:03:00.001+02:002011-05-03T14:18:36.632+02:00

With the arrival of the first real Japanese data since the Tsunami struck the immensity of the tragedy which Japan is passing through is only now gradually becoming apparent. Exports were down by a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in March over February, while imports were only fell by a much more modest 1.4%, with the inevitable consequence that the trade surplus which forms the lifeline for Japan's

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-16065571277089788742011-04-04T11:03:00.000+02:002011-04-04T11:05:17.515+02:00

Evidence which would enable us to assess the full economic impact of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami is still hard to come by. There is a lot of talk of supply chain disruptions, but little in the way of detailed evidence to back up assertions of the more anecdotal kind. Even the latest set of manufacturing PMI data has decidedly left the jury out on the topic.Evidently in Japan there was a

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-87759400510616835052011-03-19T16:40:00.017+01:002011-03-20T11:49:53.224+01:00

As Japanese officials continue to toil away in what we all hope will be a successful bid to avert a worst case scenario nuclear meltdown even while thousands of Japanese still remain missing and unaccounted for, financial market participants across the globe have been struggling with themselves to answer one and the same question: just how serious are the economic consequences of all this

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-81182221566594013142011-03-02T00:36:00.000+01:002011-03-02T00:37:37.581+01:00

According to this source, Yoshio Watanabe, a professor of electrical engineering at Kanagawa University states that many Japanese companies have outsourced research, development, and engineering overseas in the last twenty years. The same source states that science, math, and engineering are unpopular fields of study for Japanese students. One theory regarding the decline in interest in

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-44922292696436878682011-01-11T17:02:00.001+01:002011-01-11T17:03:52.068+01:00

Edward posted this in a comment to the previous post:"Those who argue that Japan can simply keep eating its own debt indefinitely are right until and unless the economy can no longer run an external trade surplus.Theoretically, as population ages, this point will be reached, since productivity will fall with rising workforce median age. So we know there is an outer limit somewhere, although

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-2909362632247494382011-01-11T07:09:00.003+01:002011-01-11T07:32:05.747+01:00

On December 27, Bloomberg reported that "Japanese workers´ willingness to accept wage cuts to safeguard their jobs is lowering prices and deepening deflation". This assertion was attributed to Hisashi Yamada, chief senior economist at the Japan Research Institute in Tokyo. Yamada also asserted that"Japan´s jobless rate would be

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-87365963128235182052010-09-16T07:24:00.002+02:002010-09-16T07:34:06.832+02:00

I highly recommend WHEN JAPAN COLLAPSES, released today over at The Burning Platform. While the tone of the piece is a bit hyperbolic, the author has gathered a solid set of data shown in chart form to back up his thesis. That is as follows:"If the market demands an interest rate of anything more than 3.5% to buy their debt then Japan will not have the revenue to service its debt. As the

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-37442851303929111792010-07-20T21:58:00.004+02:002010-07-20T22:04:39.033+02:00

Guest Post by Manuel Alvarez RiveraElection Resources On The InternetWithout doubt, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has had a decidedly rough ride in power in the ten months since its historic House of Representatives election victory, which brought to an end more than half-a-century of nearly uninterrupted Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rule. Last month the Japanese public was treated to the

Adminnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-63870369072710234502010-07-15T21:54:00.002+02:002010-07-15T21:55:58.919+02:00

According to the Financial Times, "China replaced the US as Japan’s biggest export market last year(2009)".(1) Here's a chart from RIETI showing the relative shares of Japan's total exports:It's remarkable that the proportion of exports to the USA has practically halved in ten years. Figures from Japan's Ministry of Finance show that Japan actually had a trade deficit with China in 2009,

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-13812109485342365812010-06-16T21:55:00.004+02:002010-06-16T22:08:31.820+02:00

The population pyramid is inverted: Population growth is zero: Japan's population is projected to shrink by approximately 32 million persons, or 25%, over the next forty years: Source: Statistical Handbook of Japan 2009 Assuming an average household size of two persons, this would mean that about 12.5 million housing units would become excess during this time frame. That would be a

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-63510340875796947702010-03-16T08:24:00.001+01:002010-03-16T10:22:33.477+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenPopular myth and, allegedly, the laws of aerodynamics have it that the bumblebee should not be able to take flight. Yet still, our good bumblebee refuses to be pulled down by such details and year after year it takes flight as if nothing has happened. This allegory applies, with some imagination, to Japans economy too. Year after year it consequently appears able to

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-62214336725367820542010-01-26T21:51:00.001+01:002010-01-26T21:51:50.157+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenSometimes no news is more telling than one might initially think and although it was hardly earth shattering for the market that the BOJ chose yesterday to keep its main benchmark rate sitting at 0.1% it does highlight the extraordinary difficulties Japan currently face in terms of sparking its economy back into some kind of forward momentum. (quote Bloomberg) The

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-15522748811923730302010-01-22T19:57:00.001+01:002010-01-22T19:57:54.795+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenIn short, if the world economy is to get through this crisis in reasonable shape, credit worthy surplus countries must expand domestic demand relative to potential output. How they achieve this outcome is up to them. But only in this way can the deficit countries realistically hope to avoid spending themselves into bankruptcy. Martin Wolf (2008) It is not the first

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-3169030083670190142010-01-14T09:28:00.003+01:002010-01-14T09:46:51.411+01:00

Whoever said economists are people who don't ever get anything right?"Economic growth in Germany probably stagnated in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the Federal Statistics office said. Still, the figure is “surrounded by uncertainty,” Norbert Raeth, an economist at the office, said in a press conference in Wiesbaden today."So German GDP was probably more or less flat quarter

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-62514888665850838332010-01-13T16:12:00.000+01:002010-01-13T16:13:02.042+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenI shall openly admit that I have always found the exact role of the rating agencies a bit odd in the global financial system. I mean, do we really need them to tell us which bonds are good and which are not? I am not sure and what is more; rating agencies sometimes, if not all the time depending on their ability to stay in

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-64837780490035840732010-01-12T16:13:00.000+01:002010-01-13T16:14:15.139+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenLast week was a good lesson in terms of what might, or what might not, happen when policy makers attempt to steer currency markets. Notwithstanding the obvious question of much how clout policy makers de-facto holds with respect to moving currency markets (not a lot I think), the outgoing finance minister in Japan Hirohisa

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-42857817716703924652009-12-06T19:28:00.003+01:002009-12-07T10:57:19.405+01:00

Despite recent optimism about the apparent renaisance of growth in the Japanese economy, and the heightened sense of enthusiasm which surrounds the surge in economic activity right across the Asian continent there are considerable grounds for caution about the sustainability of the Japanese recovery itself.The first of these is to be found in the fact that, as has become plain from the latest

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-60337132355497848102009-11-08T21:47:00.001+01:002009-11-08T21:47:55.160+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenIn case you had not noticed, the IMF is blogging and it is not "merely" the garden variety IMF staffers they are rolling out to fill the pages; nope here we are treated to the likes of Blanchard, Atkinson, Lipsky, Cottarelli and a host of other of the Fund's A-listers. Consequently, it would seem that in an already (over)crowded world of econblogging, the

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-91020242179139617942009-11-04T22:16:00.002+01:002009-11-04T22:18:42.137+01:00

A few days back there were rumblings of dissatisfaction from the market about Ministry of Finance projected issuance:Japan’s Bonds Drop a 4th Day After 20-Year Auction Demand Cools – Bloomberg.comIt’s possible that the new government will have to limit its borrowing for “stimulus” spending, as the demand for additional JGB’s is limited.It seems to me the scenario would work like this:Ministry of

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-49982310539787594172009-11-01T21:52:00.003+01:002009-11-01T21:58:50.722+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen(click on pictures for better viewing) Last week, we learned that industrial production rose yet again in Japan clocking in at 1.4% month-on-month in September after having increased by 1.6% in August. Companies said they planned to increase production in October and November as well, indicating the recovery from a record export collapse in the first quarter is

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-11203506456532373992009-10-18T23:36:00.001+02:002009-10-18T23:37:39.140+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen(click on pictures for better viewing) After a nice and entertaining week in Barcelona where I had the privilege not only to hold a seminar at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, but also to meet a host of interesting people, I thought that it would be about time that I finished my piece on the latest data from Japan which admittedly will be a bit backward

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-76290651128924065522009-10-16T19:33:00.002+02:002009-10-16T19:35:10.926+02:00

Note yet another increase in spite of continued yen strength.Source

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-35267599022595888492009-10-16T00:41:00.006+02:002009-10-16T01:12:29.149+02:00

Source: Danske Bank

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-29011201585952106892009-10-16T00:10:00.005+02:002009-10-16T00:26:41.700+02:00

in billions of $...

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-2804588265989829822009-09-17T22:28:00.001+02:002009-09-19T08:44:29.434+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenAs the discourse is slowly but surely tilting towards exit strategies, by part of central banks, from ultra low interest rates and unconventional measures the BOJ opted to day to maintain a very cautious stance towards the incoming green shoots and whether they will prove enough to lift Japan out of the mire. (quote: Bloomberg) Officials kept the benchmark overnight

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-27045753147488349592009-09-09T06:52:00.003+02:002009-10-15T22:37:02.029+02:00

It appears that the DPJ has not promised much change in economic policy. In analysis leading up to the election the NY Times stated that"The main opposition Democratic Party, which polls indicate will end half a century of nearly uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democrats, has not offered much more than piecemeal remedies to Japan’s biggest problems. Neither party has proposed politically

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-12476338934748510632009-09-06T20:42:00.000+02:002009-09-06T20:43:17.622+02:00

By Claus Vistesen (Copenhagen)Much pomp and circumstance was certainly made in relation to the fact that Japan actually grew in the second quarter at a full annualized 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Yet, the underlying numbers to suggest a recovery are still sorely missing. Deflation now seem to have taken hold, unemployment is rising fast and although the recent manufacturing

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-78388188651966454602009-08-18T00:38:00.001+02:002009-08-18T16:56:23.304+02:00

Amidst a huge fanfare of euphoria from the press, Japan's GDP expanded by 0.9% quarter on quarter between April and June, or at a 3.7% annualized rate. In doing so it clocked up the first positive growth in five quarters. Many now claim the worst is over is over for Japan, and in terms of the depth of contraction it may well be, but I fear that recovery may be a much more distant prospect than

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-10142923431570377672009-08-12T05:17:00.004+02:002009-08-12T05:21:20.406+02:00

as reported in the US Treasury's TIC report. It's interesting that China did not surpass Japan until September of 2008; and that those two countries dwarf all the other holders. How long can Japan avoid having to redeem some of these assets to fund domestic social programs?

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-58182324685068604452009-07-25T11:04:00.000+02:002009-07-25T22:16:13.823+02:00

Japan’s June exports fell at the slowest annual pace this year, helping the trade surplus widen for the first time in 20 months. Shipments abroad were down 35.7 percent from a year earlier, following a 40.9 percent in May, according to the Finance Ministry. The surplus widened to 508 billion yen ($5.4 billion).Real exports (adjusted for price change impacts) rose an estimated 8.0% over May (

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-74417636262041301022009-07-20T15:58:00.002+02:002009-07-20T16:01:31.917+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenIn a recent article published in Slate, Daniel Gross gets to the heart of the matter. Essentially, he argues that one of the principal reasons that Japan is not rising is that it has failed to do the homework in the human capital department or as Gross phrases it; while Japan is still leading in engineering, this is not the case with respect to social engineering.

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-70181429170616656972009-07-13T11:52:00.003+02:002009-07-13T12:05:12.035+02:00

By Claus Vistesen CopenhagenFor regular observers of Japanese politics (which does not include yours truly) this will be something of a non event. In fact, it has been brewing for more than a while given the rising unpopularity of the ruling LDP and its stifled leadership (a wobbly minister at a G7 meeting springs to mind). However, it is still significant, I think, that the troubled PM Aso and

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-76041594725417288742009-07-10T14:54:00.003+02:002009-07-10T17:17:31.867+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenI really don't want to beat a dead horse here and although I already gave it a kick in the context of the release of the May consumer price data I do think that this is pretty significant [quote from Bloomberg with my emphasis]. Japan’s producer prices fell at a record pace in June as oil costs declined and companies required fewer materials amid a global

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-67530101002623815332009-07-09T19:07:00.001+02:002009-07-09T19:08:47.152+02:00

Yen: Safe Haven, But for How Much Longer?"The Yen carry trade is long gone. Now that everybody else has the same "zero interest rate policies" the trade has been unwound. The Japanese economy is absolutely imploding as the fatal flaw in the great export experiment is revealed. No amount of so called "stimulus" at home will make up for evaporating foreign demand, especially after fifteen years of

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-62591472571656827682009-06-24T11:48:00.001+02:002009-06-25T00:08:03.749+02:00

Japan put in a pretty negative export performance in May. Even shipments to China show little sign of improvement, and the general impression is that hopes for a quick recovery in global demand are looking very premature.On the other hand a 42 per cent year-on-year fall in imports in May left Japan with a trade surplus of Y299.8bn for the month - something that will help push gross domestic

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-81191117802939723972009-06-20T11:48:00.000+02:002009-06-20T12:26:55.708+02:00

Quietly clicking my way through Bloomberg last Sunday afternoon, I came across this:Facebook Members Register Names at 550 a SecondFacebook Inc., the world’s largest social-networking site, said members registered new user names at a rate of more than 550 a second after the company offered people the chance to claim a personalized Web address.Facebook started accepted registrations at midnight

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-79281398426881828352009-06-13T08:39:00.004+02:002009-06-13T09:20:24.714+02:00

Border bust equals possible international incident-missing TARP funds?I have written a bit regarding this at the above link...a developing story worth at least a glance.Scott

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-62372192934642553052009-06-10T09:20:00.002+02:002009-06-10T09:31:37.838+02:00

Well, as I was busying myself yesterday scratching around looking for green shoots in Turkey. I couldn't help notice this coming in over the radar from Germany, courtesy of Bloomberg:German exports fell more than economists forecast in April as the global crisis restrained demand, keeping Europe’s largest economy mired in a recession. Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-90375413475042690602009-06-04T08:28:00.002+02:002009-06-04T08:51:24.006+02:00

The facetious title of this piece refers of course to US Federal Reserve chairman Benjamin Bernanke's well known reference to dropping bundles of cash from helicopters as a last resort to fight deflation.Edward Hugh noted in the previous post here that "The government...have begun distributing 12,000 yen ($125) to each resident in March to encourage spending." I've found a few reactions to this

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-48152754817044514392009-06-01T08:56:00.003+02:002009-06-08T10:56:17.531+02:00

Well, as Claus pointed out in his last post, Japanese data is pretty much a mixed bag at the moment. Industrial output shot up in April, and the May PMI data suggested that the easing of manufacturing contraction continued in May. However household spending and retail sales fell, unemployment rose, and the CPI reading suggested the Japanese economy is once more getting itself firmly wedged in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-73335611181153625102009-05-29T16:32:00.004+02:002009-05-30T17:00:07.730+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenIt appears that there is still some green shoots left in the news from Japan even though the underlying picture is one of deteriorating fundamentals. We learned recently how Q1 was absolutely horrid in Japan with out declining at an annualised 15.2% which, I a dread to say, are numbers normally reserved to the likes of the Baltics, Ukraine and Hungary [1]. The second

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-14410406715875518402009-05-27T12:16:00.007+02:002009-05-27T19:42:56.194+02:00

Japan’s external trade held steady in April, although since exports were up ever so slightly on March (13 trillion yen) while imports were down slightly (45 trillion yen) the country did post a slightly larger trade surplus than in March (69 trillion yen, over 10 trillion yen in March).Nontheless year on year the numbers, while slightly better than in previous months, still look horrible.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-57449424516314976982009-05-26T19:06:00.005+02:002009-05-28T00:00:37.978+02:00

where the need for markets for its industrial sector is causing Japanese leaders to reconsider a longstanding policy. Nikkei is reporting that the Japanese government has decided to lift its ban on arms exports by domestic companies."TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Japanese government decided Saturday to relax its rules on arms exports to allow more joint development and production of weapons with other

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-16118494236851523362009-05-21T10:00:00.002+02:002009-05-24T15:11:15.852+02:00

Japan’s economy shrank at a record rate last quarter as exports collapsed and businesses drastically cut back on investment spending. Gross domestic product fell by an annualized 15.2 percent in the three months ended March 31, following a revised fourth- quarter drop of 14.4 percent, according to the Japanese Cabinet Office. The economy contracted 3.5 percent in the year ended March 31, the most

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-48602436753850860682009-05-21T06:05:00.002+02:002009-05-21T06:08:15.017+02:00

The quote from Moody's is "Japan's credit profile is Aa2 The unified rating of Aa2 reflects Japan's considerable strengths. These include Japan's large domestic savings, a strong home bias on the part of its domestic financial institutions and institutional investors, relatively low holdings of government debt by foreign investors, and Japan's $1 trillion of official foreign exchange holdings.

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-22649783604389124672009-05-13T20:43:00.004+02:002009-05-13T20:58:14.935+02:00

By Claus VistesenI am sure all investors, analysts, and commentators have been tracking a wide range of indicators to gauge whether the shoots of green would continue to spark or whether it was merely a blip on the way down. Clearly, this has been and is a little more than a blip I think and for my own part, decisive evidence came today that things might have changed. I am of course

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-83413747437198997252009-05-07T20:23:00.002+02:002009-05-07T15:52:39.609+02:00

Japan's contraction showed signs of easing in March, even though the recession has now set in for the duration, the deepest point may well have been passed. The ship may be stable, but it is still far from being right side up.Industrial Output Up On The MonthJapan's industrial output rose in March (more than anticipated), and showed the first gain in six months, suggesting that the steepness in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-77891804036837665552009-04-22T16:00:00.005+02:002009-04-22T16:38:02.481+02:00

The rate of decline in Japan’s export slowed in March, after four-months of record breaking contractions. Evidentally this constitutes some sort of sign that the intensity of the recession may have started to ease.Overseas shipments were down 45.6 percent from a year earlier, as compared with February’s unprecedented 49.4 percent plunge. Most notable was the fact that (on an annual basis)

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-19623273007302162382009-04-21T22:32:00.002+02:002009-04-21T22:46:57.384+02:00

Bloomberg's Jason Clenfield has a piece out today describing how Japan's business have been coping with economic weakness by cutting wages rather than through layoffs. This is not really a surprise given that "lifetime employment" is a concept that still has some support in the country. However, the piece refers to OECD data showing "Japanese salaries have fallen in seven of the last 10 years".

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-89597808152887199322009-04-20T21:17:00.000+02:002009-04-20T21:18:53.203+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenARE carry trades back in Vogue? With all the talk about second derivatives, equity rallies, and for my own part spring sensation in the market place this question is, I think, a natural one to ask. And by all means, I am not the only one who is asking it. Actually, I think most serious FX punters out there are considering (or have considered) whether it is

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-90829641938707994122009-04-13T08:56:00.002+02:002009-04-13T09:56:17.577+02:00

This is based on data from the Treasury Department on Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities. The chart below(click to enlarge) through January 2009 shows that China passed Japan in official holdings in September 2008. Now we know from Brad Setser's analyses that there is more than just official Treasury holdings to consider when comparing total foreign

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-6275546011286714632009-04-11T04:21:00.003+02:002009-04-11T05:51:23.094+02:00

Yesterday Japanese Prime Minister Aso released his administration's economic support plan, amounting to 15.4 trillion yen or about $150 billion. Bloomberg reports that PM Aso's stimulus plan is receiving largely negative reviews from economists. This plan would result in Japan's total debt reaching 800 trillion yen by next March. The Bloomberg piece states that "Aso, 68, said the government

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-18177775435795781712009-04-07T08:19:00.003+02:002009-04-07T08:24:55.867+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen Even though the big news of last week undoubtedly is represented by the one trillion session in London, the smaller than expected nudge from the gents at Kaiserstrasse and the emerging talk of a market bottom and impending recovery, I am going to wonkishly stay on the topic with respect to my latest long piece on the land of the rising sun and its economic

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-17727651118652019592009-04-06T23:28:00.002+02:002009-04-06T23:46:34.926+02:00

Michael J. Oakes, in a Reason piece titled More Bang For the Yen? from 1998 describes how fiscal policies relating to savings and investment affect individual financial decisions in Japan:"Japanese haven't accumulated large savings merely because of cultural preferences. The tax system encourages savings and discourages participation by individuals in stock and bond markets. (Dividends are

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-70811688750772982632009-04-01T07:08:00.003+02:002009-04-01T07:24:37.804+02:00

The Associated Press are reporting that Japan gives cash to jobless foreigners to go home. The lead states that "Japan began offering money Wednesday for unemployed foreigners of Japanese ancestry to go home, mostly to Brazil and Peru, to stave off what officials said posed a serious unemployment problem.Thousands of foreigners of Japanese ancestry, who had been hired on temporary or referral

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-61949779504280678862009-03-31T14:04:00.000+02:002009-03-31T20:44:02.323+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen Last time I had Japan under the loop I asked whether there was no end in sight for Japan's economy and as I wind up for another close look, I must say that it is still very difficult to find good news if any at all. However, and for the sake of argument I thought that we might begin with some recent arguments in the context of the global economy which suggest that we

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-39002854938470482932009-03-30T20:42:00.000+02:002009-03-31T20:43:43.640+02:00

Japan's economy certainly looks to be one of the worst case scenarios globally at the moment. Indeed, as Claus Vistesen puts it (in a very fine and thoroughly argued post - Engine Failure - that you can see here): "Final estimates from Q4 2008 suggested that Japan contracted at an annualized 12.1% which puts Japan in the dubious pole position of biggest GDP declines among industrialised economies

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-57302791297540921102009-03-30T06:08:00.002+02:002009-03-30T06:34:08.904+02:00

Bloomberg has a piece out describing the debate in Japan over the Aso government's plans for a new spending package, noting that "Japan’s 17-month recession is showing no signs of abating, and Aso may be tempted to attract rural voters with the pork-barrel projects that left the country with the world’s largest public debt." The Bloomberg piece adds that "some ruling Liberal Democratic Party

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-71108495236051578282009-03-28T22:50:00.002+01:002009-03-28T22:54:23.737+01:00

Despite the fact that Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said Friday that February's fall in the so called "core-core" consumer price index doesn't mean Japan is back in deflation, few are ready to accept his judgement. Indeed, if you look at the core-core line in the chart below, it is at least debateable whether the Japanese economy was ever out of it in the first place. But the present

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-13374235500245281172009-03-24T04:06:00.002+01:002009-03-24T04:34:14.473+01:00

The Nippon Keizai Shimbun is reporting today that "Japanese household financial assets totaled 1,433.5 trillion yen at the end of December, falling 5.7% on the year to a 4-year low, the Bank of Japan's preliminary data released Tuesday showed. This is the sharpest annual drop on record. Slumping stock and investment trust prices took a toll on household assets. Stock holdings plunged 40.2% on

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-6172839354609403992009-03-23T00:56:00.002+01:002009-03-23T01:04:36.796+01:00

A commenter provided a link to Japan in trouble; India relatively safe, a piece in The Economic Times which states:"Some foresee Japan--one of the world’s biggest exporters--going bankrupt and its currency plummet if the situation doesn’t change near term. For years, the Japanese have relied on exports to support their economy... but exports have dried up given the severe recession in the

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-82827344376501390372009-03-18T19:56:00.002+01:002009-03-18T20:11:19.810+01:00

The yen has strengthened versus the dollar significantly in the short period since the US Federal Reserve announced that "the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-22587598399014997082009-03-12T05:23:00.002+01:002009-03-12T05:34:54.899+01:00

Bloomberg has a report headlined Japan’s Funding Crunch Deepening with the key item being that "The funding crunch for Japanese businesses is intensifying as foreign-currency financing dries up, forcing larger firms to turn to the nation’s state policy bank for emergency loans, the head of the lender said...JBIC, which provides funds to help bolster Japanese companies’ international

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-25973337312608488832009-03-08T11:25:00.002+01:002009-03-08T11:26:16.780+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenQuantitative easing is certainly all the rage at the moment after this week saw the Bank of England move interest rates down 50 basis points to the level of 0.5% and, effectively, into QE. Over at Morgan Stanley, Manoj Pradhan talks about a new global QE scheme even if we are not quite there yet, and David K. Miles and Melanie Baker talk about the UK version.

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-15625335133455851542009-02-27T18:11:00.007+01:002009-02-27T19:13:06.822+01:00

Japanese manufacturing output fell in January by a record 10 per cent month-on-month while new job offers declined 18 per cent, reflecting the deepening recession in the world’s second biggest economy. Industrial production was down a whopping 30.8 per cent year-on-year, as manufacturers of vehicles, electronics parts and devices and general machinery slashed output to adjust to the rapid fall in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-20566871498922535842009-02-25T09:37:00.006+01:002009-02-25T10:17:49.947+01:00

Japan’s exports plunged by 45.7 percent year on year in January, producing a record trade deficit, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe, and a sharp downturn in China crushed demand for the country’s machinery, cars and electronics. A drop of this size is truly staggering.“People are coming to realize that Japan is in deep trouble,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-60521169893483782172009-02-16T12:37:00.012+01:002009-02-19T00:40:05.105+01:00

Well, it isn't only in Europe that we are having a hard time of things. Last week Kazuo Momma, head of the Bank of Japan’s research and statistics department, warned that Japan’s economy now faced an “unimaginable” contraction, and today we can begin to see just what the unimaginable might look like, since the preliminary data for fourth quarter GDP are now out. And what we find when we come to

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-40372575870832892632009-02-14T12:36:00.001+01:002009-02-16T14:08:08.930+01:00

Well in a week which has seen Kazuo Momma, head of the Bank of Japan’s research and statistics department warning that Japan’s economy now faces an “unimaginable” contraction, and Prime Minister Taro Aso's approval rating dropping to a mere 14 percent according to the latest Asahi newspaper survey, it should not surprise us to hear reports that yet another set of "exotic" proposals have been put

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-46034179523245085942009-01-30T20:46:00.004+01:002009-01-30T20:52:19.575+01:00

By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenAs I wind up, post exam session, for some serious economic analysis it is to an economic landscape which is increasingly looking like a surreal mixture between Kafka and Dali. Having been paying only scant attention to the data stream the past 5 months, I have been adequately awake to note that the incoming barrage of data from the real economy has been absolutely

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-71550984522575192762009-01-26T10:15:00.001+01:002009-01-29T21:18:34.696+01:00

Things in Japan are looking grim. They keep getting grimmer, and it doesn't seem they will be getting less grim anytime soon. To give you some idea of what this means, only this week we learnt that Japan’s steel production fell 28 percent in December. This was the steepest decline in no less than six decades. Meanwhile Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Tokyo University professor and head of the Japanese

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-14563942326533866192009-01-20T08:34:00.006+01:002009-01-22T17:57:18.765+01:00

Japan’s exports plunged by a record in December, signaling companies will be forced to shut factory lines and fire more workers, driving the economy deeper into recession.Exports plummeted 35 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The December drop eclipsed a record 26.7 percent

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-54730635033508899822009-01-09T09:39:00.000+01:002009-01-09T09:40:36.966+01:00

In a week when we learn that Toyota plans to suspend production at all 12 of its Japanese plants for 11 days over the next couple of months, news which follows hot on the tails of last week's report that industrial output shrank at the fastest pace since at least 1953 in November (16.2% y-o-y), with December's Purchasing Manager Index survey - described in JPMorgan's Global Report as the weakest

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-38190943639526173892008-12-26T16:03:00.013+01:002008-12-26T19:06:52.866+01:00

Japan’s recession evidently deepened even further in November as industrial output fell at the fastest pace in 55 years. Production plunged 8.1 percent month on month from October (Trade Ministry data) and was down an enormous 16.2% year on year. For an economy which lives from the prowess of its industrial exports, this is simply earthquake.The decline in production was the largest since data

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-66184365848839980412008-12-22T14:31:00.005+01:002008-12-22T15:56:49.543+01:00

Japan’s exports fell the most on record in November, as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, suggesting that more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens. Exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Finance Ministry today (Monday). This was thus the largest fall since the data was first published in 1980.Exports to the U.S.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-1651081537010171742008-12-22T12:09:00.000+01:002008-12-22T15:00:37.452+01:00

With the US Federal Reserve now adopting what is widely regarded as some variant of quantitative easing (QE), and with the Bank of Japan cutting interest rates amidst economic conditions which BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa describes as "severe", perhaps it is worth taking time out to have a looking at some of the earlier experience of quantitative easing in Japan, in order to ask ourselves why

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-53229053287938946872008-12-21T00:22:00.004+01:002008-12-21T01:01:03.407+01:00

Aozora Bank..."Aozora Bank Ltd., a midsize Japanese bank, said Tuesday it has up to 12.4 billion yen ($137 million) in indirect exposure to the massive Ponzi scheme run by Wall Street money manager Bernard Madoff...the development represents an unneeded distraction for the struggling lender, whose top shareholder is U.S. private-equity fund Cerberus Capital Management."US GSE's..."Japan's

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-45118204595967939982008-12-19T22:21:00.000+01:002008-12-19T22:24:10.405+01:00

Japan plans to buy $227 billion in shares to boost marketBy Michael Kitchen8:11 a.m. EST Dec. 18, 2008NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- "Japan's government said Thursday it is submitting a bill to parliament allowing for the purchase of 20 trillion yen ($227 billion) in stock to help stabilize the Japanese stock market, Kyodo news reported.Under the bill, the Banks' Shareholding Acquisition Corporation,

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-74183167227111433342008-12-18T21:04:00.001+01:002008-12-18T21:07:15.127+01:00

The benefit from the negative energy price shock should provide some boost to domestic consumption. On the other hand, the rise of the yen versus the dollar to more realistic levels is no doubt more than offsetting the benefit from the fall in oil prices. At this point, I think the Japanese authorities are unable to do anything meaningful to weaken the yen. Also, the bulk of Japan's exports are

Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12392288826388903607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-55757390302478285552008-12-09T11:52:00.026+01:002008-12-17T18:18:45.159+01:00

Today's comments by Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa that conditions in Japan's economy are severe and that monetary conditions are rapidly tightening should not be taken lightly in my opinion. Viewed alongside last weeks data revision which showed that Japan’s gross domestic product contracted much more rapidly in the third quarter than initially thought, and the recent admission by

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-56199560657938261982008-11-28T09:18:00.007+01:002008-11-30T09:48:45.597+01:00

Japanese industrial output was down again sharply in October as manufacturers forcecast further record falls in the months to come, leading to warnings that Japan’s recession may well be much deeper and even longer than originally anticipated. This rather bleak news on Japanese factory output may also be a pointer to a longer and deeper global recession, as Japan's main customers - the euro zone

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-83998728818842107312008-11-22T09:47:00.001+01:002008-11-22T15:04:26.013+01:00

The Japanese cabinet officially recognised this week that Japan's economy has entered its first recession since 2001, following a second quarterly contraction in Q3 2008. Claus Vistesen has already analysed (in this post) the key issues which lie behind the present recession data, and has also, in this post today, attempted to place Japan's renewed deflation alert in a somewhat broader context.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-62347390264912888432008-11-21T12:58:00.007+01:002008-11-24T13:55:31.836+01:00

by Claus Vistesen: LausanneToday it is precisely one month ago that yours truly noted that he was swamped. He still is, but even though your author is still struggling to meet the quantitative demands of neo-classical graduate economics (especially, the statistical vintage) he still thinks that now might be as good a time as ever to jump back into the saddle and practice some economic punditry.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-33872754648403934182008-11-11T15:02:00.007+01:002008-11-12T11:38:51.714+01:00

Well, the outlook for the coming months in Japan looks none too positive, with machinery orders and small business sentiment both plumming the depths right now.Japanese machinery orders fell by 10.4 percent in the third quarter, equalling the biggest drop on record, as manufacturers cut their investment plans in anticipation of the impact of the global slowdown on overseas demand. The decline in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-12847831484432413462008-10-31T08:26:00.015+01:002008-10-31T12:27:52.645+01:00

Well, suddenly Japan's economy seems to be back in the news. The BOJ today lowered interest rates, inflation seems to have peaked (and deflation may be once more looming on the horizon), householding spending is in decline, employment is falling, exports are languishing as the yen hits one high after another against both the dollar and the euro, Prime Minister Taro Aso is (despite the perilously

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-10429933670332952232008-10-28T08:18:00.004+01:002008-10-28T09:03:18.651+01:00

Well, this blog is pretty quiet at the moment, for this my apologies to our readers. Claus is up to his eyes in math in Lausanne, and I am pretty overwhelmed by what is happening in Eastern and Southern Europe at the moment. But don't worry, the interruption in service is only temporary. We will continue, the really interesting part is only just about to start.Basically, most of the things that

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-48304055855945586512008-10-09T15:12:00.002+02:002008-10-09T15:16:27.988+02:00

Well, while most of the attention out there is justifiably focused on the dramatic events of recent days in the financial markets, the real economy is where the impact of what is happening all ends up, and news on this from in Japan continues to be pretty bleak.Today we learnt that a key barometer of corporate capital spending in Japan plunged in August to its lowest level in more than five years

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-64142397358220863082008-10-04T15:54:00.001+02:002008-10-09T17:50:41.102+02:00

As the horror story of financial markets continues at full speed it may seem a rather futile endeavor to try to make sense of what is increasingly becoming senseless by the day. Yet, you hardly need to be a financial literate to see that the world of finance and banking has been changed for good. I don't think this was neither unwarranted nor unexpected. At some point, US authorities had to let

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-20941433722436178472008-09-30T22:35:00.014+02:002008-10-01T18:59:21.051+02:00

Japan seems to be really racking up a series of economic issues which lead me to think that this recession we are now entering which be neither short lived nor "light". Inflation continues to make its presence felt in a way which is not exactly disastrous after years of deflation, but which does mean that downward pressure on wages as the economy slows pushes consumption back, and that is just

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-36581388533539999722008-09-24T13:12:00.002+02:002008-09-24T13:18:30.491+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: LausanneIt is not as if financial markets are short on action at the moment, and financial pundits and analysts are certainly being served an ample amount of ammunition from which to draw inspiration. With the recent news that Warren Buffet will be relinquishing his coffers of 7.5 billion to support the erstwhile jewel of investment banking Goldman Sachs, it is difficult for

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-14381594074042190452008-09-16T12:49:00.003+02:002008-09-17T08:10:51.176+02:00

By Claus Vistesen: LausanneIt has been a while since I last had Japan under the spotlight where and where I noted that Japan almost certainly would be tumbling into or very close to recession. Since then, data have been pointing only one way really and with the recent downward revision of an already quite awful Q2 GDP reading Japan now seems certain to be flirting with a recession. As per usual,

CVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-38703960301752736662008-09-11T18:59:00.003+02:002008-09-11T19:15:00.719+02:00

One important barometer of corporate capital spending fell for the second consecutive month in July, suggesting that manufacturers are bracing themselves for slower demand in the coming months. The Cabinet Office said Thursday core private-sector machinery orders, excluding the often volatile orders from electric power companies and for ships, fell 3.9 percent to 1.04 trillion yen ($9.67 billion)

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-48335325431857979232008-09-08T12:38:00.003+02:002008-09-08T14:23:44.125+02:00

Some rather contradictory pieces of news today. The Economy Watchers index is at a seven year low, Japanese stocks jump the most in five months, the yen falls the most in three months, bank lending remains almost stationary, while real estate bankruptcies surge. Make of all of this what you will, but the underlying reality is that we are now almost certainly in full recession as far as the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3939670.post-69767968827714579022008-09-03T11:26:00.000+02:002008-09-03T12:11:35.174+02:00

Japan's consumer prices were up at the fastest date in more than a decade in July, while other data releases out in the last week show Japan's unemployment rate eased back from two-year high, household spending decreased, while industrial output rose.Inflation At Highest Level Since 1997Inflation in Japan, according to the general index, increased to 2.3% in July from 2% in June, thus clocking up

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1