Projections on Japan's Fiscal Liabilities

According to Bloomberg this morning the Japanese government may well have to set aside a record fraction of the budget just for debt interest payments in the next fiscal year as outstanding bond issuances rise and interest rates increase. According to Japan government officials - who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity - interest payments on government bonds and debt-redemption costs will probably surge 6 percent to a record 22.2 trillion yen ($192 billion) in the year that starts April 1. IOt is projected that this quantity alone will account for more than a quarter of total government spending.

The exact value to put on the outstanding Japanese is a matter of some controversy, but the budget assumptions it seems project that total will reach a whopping 148 percent of gross domestic product by March.

As Bloomberg note:

Total spending may expand 3 percent to 85.7 trillion yen next year as the aging population swells social-welfare costs and subsidies to local governments expand, according to the budget outlook.The ministry assumes interest rates on debt repayments average 2.9 percent next fiscal year, compared with 2.3 percent in the budget for the current period. It usually assumes higher- than-actual yields in the budget outlook.

No wonder Fukushiro Nukaga is putting pressure on the BoJ not to make any more precipitate interest rate increases.